Find quick answers about Quasimodo, polls, and how our election model works.
The Quasimodo Election Model simulates New Zealand elections after importing the current polling. It calculates a percentage chance of either the left bloc (Labour, TPM, Greens) or right bloc (National, NZFirst, Act) of winning the next election. This model uses techniques that are standard in the election modelling industry. No model is perfect and they are often misleading, especially in close elections. You should not base any decisions on ours or any other election model.
When 2023 polling was imported into the model, it predicted that the right bloc (including NZFirst) would get 67 seats the plurality of the time. The actual result was 68. When importing polling for the 2020 election, it predicted the obvious: Labour would get a majority of the seats. It did. The model should not be taken as fact.
You should be skeptical of any election model. There are hundreds of samples of models like these being woefully inaccurate. That being said, they are useful representations of what polling says, and polling is often wrong.
Because “Quasimodo predicted all this”. It is a reference to a scene in the Sopranos where Bobby Baccalieri confused Quasimodo with Nostradamus.
