New Zealand Election Forecast

Aggregating every major New Zealand poll into one live forecast of the 2026 election.

Updated 8 October 2026. Latest addition: Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll.

ForecastPollingElection newsMarketsFriends of Kiwi PollsFollow the race
Live forecast
40.05%
Coalition retains government
National · ACT · NZ First
56.20%
Disputed outcome
Neither bloc wins a majority
3.75%
Opposition wins
Labour · Greens · Te Pāti Māori

A disputed outcome is still clearly the most likely result. At 56.20% it outweighs a Coalition win and an Opposition win combined, though it has fallen back from the record 62.25% set on 6 October. From 50,000 simulations of the current polling average.

Government
Opposition
Disputed Outcome
Updated · 8 Oct 2026
What this means

The model currently measures the chances of either the Right-bloc (the current Government) and the Left-bloc (the current Opposition) winning the NZ election. A "disputed outcome" is the chance of an outcome where neither bloc clearly wins (on election day). This includes outcomes where the Opportunity Party (known as OPP) decides the result as a so-called kingmaker.

Seat projection
A 124-seat Parliament, with 63 needed to govern
Average seat allocation across Quasimodo's simulations of the current polling average. The model projects a four-seat overhang, which expands Parliament from 120 seats to 124 and raises the majority threshold from 61 to 63.
63 for a majority
35
17
4
7
13
11
37
Opposition 56 · 7 short
OPP 7
Government 61 · 2 short

The Opportunity Party still holds the balance. Government reaches 61 and Opposition 56, so neither clears 63 on its own. Government would get there with two of OPP's seven seats, while Opposition would need all seven.

National
37
37 elec · 0 list
Labour
35
27 elec · 8 list
Green
17
3 elec · 14 list
NZ First
13
0 elec · 13 list
ACT
11
1 elec · 10 list
Opportunity
7
0 elec · 7 list
Te Pāti Māori
4
4 elec · 0 list

An overhang occurs when a party wins more electorate seats than its party vote entitles it to, and the extra seats are added to Parliament rather than taken from another party. These are average seat counts across every simulation, so they describe the centre of the range rather than one predicted result. Averages need not add up to any single outcome the model produced.

What if the Opportunity Party picks a side?
The forecast above counts OPP as unaligned. These runs use the same polling average but assume it commits to a bloc.
OPP with the Coalition alongside National, ACT and NZ First
Government 94.76% Hung 1.44% Opposition 3.80%
OPP with the Opposition alongside Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori
Government 39.92% Hung 5.03% Opposition 55.06%

Not a prediction of what OPP would do. Only the bloc assignment changes between the two runs, and almost all of the movement comes from reassigning hung outcomes.

Read how the Quasimodo model works

The Polls

Sources: Curia, Talbot Mills, Roy Morgan, Reid Research, Verian and Freshwater.

Latest polls

New Zealand Polling Tracker

Aggregated party support from major polling organisations

Pollster
Parties
Individual polls 30-day average ± std deviation
Sources: Curia, Talbot Mills, Roy Morgan, Reid Research, Verian, Freshwater

Figures may not add to 100%. Polls also include smaller parties not shown on this tracker, and those parties have little chance of entering Parliament.

Individual poll results

Every poll feeding the average above, newest first. Filter by year, or by which party led.

Year
Lead
Date Pollster n NAT LAB GRN ACT NZF TPM OPP Others Lead
Showing 0 polls
National
Labour
Green
ACT
NZ First
Te Pāti Māori
Opportunity

Latest from the campaign

Headlines from NZ media. Each link opens the original article.

NZ Herald
September 15, 2026

Labour slumps to 31% in Anacta poll, still ahead of National

Labour fell four points to 31% in the latest Anacta poll for corporate clients, remaining narrowly ahead of National on 30%. The Herald confirmed the figures but did not obtain Anacta's seat calculation. The drop follows National's recent attack accusing Labour of planning more taxes than the one it is campaigning on.

Read article

Roy Morgan
August 31, 2026

Roy Morgan August poll: National-led bloc leads 49% to 41%, Opportunity hits record 9.5%

Both blocs held steady, with the National-led parties on 49% and the Labour-led Opposition on 41%. The Opportunity Party rose 1.5 points to a record 9.5%, its fourth straight monthly gain. Labour fell to 24%, its weakest showing since September 2024, and Roy Morgan projects Opportunity taking eleven seats and the balance of power.

Read article

Stuff
August 19, 2026

Stuff's Pulse of the Nation: 30% less likely to vote National post-coup attempt

Snap polling by Stuff found nearly a third of voters say they are less likely to vote National following last week's attempted leadership coup.

Read article

1News
August 17, 2026

Most Kiwis still back MMP despite Luxon stance

A 1News Verian poll found 53% want to keep MMP against 29% favouring a different voting system, with 18% unsure. The question follows Christopher Luxon's commitment to a referendum on the electoral system if National is re-elected.

Read article

1News
August 12, 2026

Poll: Opportunity Party surges as NZ First slides amid Luxon saga

The Opportunity Party cleared the threshold for the first time in a 1News Verian poll, climbing three points to 8% as NZ First fell three to the same figure. Labour dropped two to 30% with National steady on 29%. The poll ran as National MPs backed Christopher Luxon in a confidence vote.

Read article

Stuff
August 7, 2026

Labour plummets, Opportunity breaches 6% in new poll

Labour fell 3.7 points to 27.8%, its worst Curia result since December 2024, while the Opportunity Party climbed 2.8 to 6.1%. On these numbers the coalition holds a one-seat majority and Opportunity takes eight seats; Chris Hipkins dismissed the result as a "rogue poll".

Read article

Prediction markets

Real-money odds from Polymarket, shown for comparison.

Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + ACT + NZF?
Yes 27% · No 73%
View full market & trade on Polymarket
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green + Maori?
Yes 27% · No 74%
View full market & trade on Polymarket
Will Christopher Luxon be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?
Yes 44% · No 56%
View full market & trade on Polymarket
Will Chris Hipkins be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?
Yes 55% · No 46%
View full market & trade on Polymarket
About these markets

It is illegal for prediction markets such as Polymarket to allow New Zealanders to place bets on them, and the Kiwi Polls model may not reflect current market sentiment. These markets currently have low trading volume, so prices can swing sharply.

Others worth following this election

Friends of Kiwi Polls. Both are run by other people; we take nothing for listing them and have no say in what they publish.

Gingerbread House Elections

The Aotearoa New Zealand election as an interactive gingerbread build. A hands-on, all-ages way to learn how parties, votes and governments fit together.

gingerbreadelections.com
ResultsDesk.nz
Live on election night

Live results, maps and electorate-by-electorate coverage through election night on 7 November 2026, with analysis and video on their YouTube channel.

resultsdesk.nz

Follow the race

New polls land all campaign. Get the model's read the moment they do.

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