
(23/01/2026) It is very tight race and has been showing that since early 2025, but the Coalition (National, Labour, NZFirst) remains a slight favorite, because of New Zealand First's rising poll numbers. If the election were held today, it would be likely that Labour would receive the most seats out of any party, but it is clear that is because of swifting numbers in the right-bloc, which is currently not benefiting the Opposition's (Labour, Greens, TPM) chances of winning. A polling miss could result in either side winning, making either side a risky bet.
In 2023, Pollsters generally underestimated National's strength, but generally got it right that National, ACT and New Zealand First would form a majority.