Probability of forming government based on aggregated polling and simulation modelling.
Government
55.71%
ACT · National · NZ First
Opposition
30.76%
Labour · Greens · Māori
Disputed Outcome
13.53%
No majority outcome
Last Update (23/06/2026): New poll from Roy Morgan has resulted in a huge bump for disputed outcome. This is because TOP is at 6.5. If another poll comes out with TOP above 5%, then you should expect this to increase.
Latest Polls
New Zealand Polling Tracker
Latest polls
New Zealand Polling Tracker
Aggregated party support from major polling organisations
Pollster
Parties
NZ Polling Data
YearLead
Date
Pollster
n
NAT
LAB
GRN
ACT
NZF
TPM
TOP
Others
Lead
Prediction Markets
Disclaimer: It is illegal for prediction markets such as Polymarket to allow New Zealanders to place bets on them. The Kiwi Polls model may not reflect the current feeling in the prediction markets. THESE MARKETS DO NOT CURRENTLY HAVE A LOT OF VOLUME, MEANING THE ARE SUBJECT TO RAPID SWINGS.
