IMPORTANT UPDATE
The model has been updated to its 2.0 version. The results are therefore slightly different and indicate a trend upwards for the Coalition. Yes, 2.0 is more bullish for the Coalition by a tiny degree; 1.5 has them around 49% with some improvement stemming from the Talbot Mills poll. 2.0 is the superior model we will be using from now on. As you can also see, the new model calculates a lower probability of a hung parliament (in short, we fed the model even more data).
It is a very tight race and has been showing that since early 2025, but the Coalition (National, Labour, NZFirst) remains a slight favourite, because of New Zealand First's rising poll numbers.
In 2023, Pollsters generally underestimated National's strength, but generally got it right that National, ACT and New Zealand First would form a majority.
